Before Nov 2026
Implied probability 14%+4
24-hour volume$20
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves2 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +4 points at 22:17 UTC, after News Feed: Joel Kaplan to step down as Meta global affairs chief — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 18:31 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 11% |
| 19 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 20% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their current role or announces they will leave before November 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such departure or announcement occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the linked headline about a 2027 departure as relevant, but only events happening before the November 2026 deadline count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 14%
- No 86%