Before 2030
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolved1 Jan 2030
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Karl Bushby arrives in Hull, England, before January 1, 2030. It resolves to No if he does not reach that specific destination by that date. Readers often mistake the start of his walk for the deadline or assume any arrival in the UK counts instead of just Hull.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%