Above $99,999.99
Why it moved: −4 points at 04:36 UTC, after CoinDesk: Nearly $1 billion in crypto bets liquidated as bitcoin, ether and XRP slide — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 27% |
| 15 Oct, 14:57 UTC | 27% |
| 15 Oct, 14:06 UTC | 25% |
| 15 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 27% |
| 15 Oct, 13:10 UTC | 26% |
| 15 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 27% |
| 15 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 26% |
| 13 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Bitcoin spot price from the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index stays above $99,999.99 at any point between January 2, 2026, at 6:00 PM and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the start date for January 1 or confuse this index with other price sources.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 27%
- No 73%