Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Implied probability 99%+3
24-hour volume$214k
Total volume$275k
Liquidity$275k
Resolves3 Oct 2028
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if officials announce that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualifies for the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome depends solely on this official announcement regarding his eligibility for the second round. Readers often mistake general polling leads or primary results for the final qualification status.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%