Lula da Silva, ≥7%
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 5%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$31k
Liquidity$31k
Resolved25 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 23:01 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 21:43 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff by a margin of at least 7%. It resolves to No if his winning margin is less than 7% or if he loses the election. Readers often mistake the linked news story about workweek approval for the actual election result, but only the final runoff vote count matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%