Lula da Silva, 0-5%
Implied probability 59%+3
24-hour volume$221
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves4 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 59% |
| 29 Sept, 15:32 UTC | 59% |
| 29 Sept, 06:12 UTC | 54% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Sept, 21:22 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 61% |
| 27 Sept, 01:10 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Sept, 08:43 UTC | 57% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Lula da Silva wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin between 0% and just under 5%. The outcome is No if his victory margin is 5% or more, or if he does not win. Readers often mistake the upper bound as inclusive, but the rule specifies that a margin of exactly 5% results in a No.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 59%
- No 41%