Above $98.99
Implied probability 92%+16
24-hour volume$25
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves30 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +14 points at 12:21 UTC, after Fortune: Current price of oil as of October 22, 2026 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 92% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 92% |
| 22 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 91% |
| 22 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 89% |
| 22 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 90% |
| 20 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 76% |
| 20 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 81% |
| 20 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 88% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 72% |
| 17 Oct, 13:41 UTC | 78% |
| 16 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 77% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Brent crude oil closes above $98.99 per barrel at 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2026. It resolves to No if the price is $98.99 or lower at that specific time. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 92%
- No 8%