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Kylian Mbappe

Resolved: No 11d ago

The market favoured No at 82% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$9.3M
Total volume$14.1M
Liquidity$14.1M
Resolved31 Dec 2026

Why it moved: −26 points at 23:03 UTC, after News Feed: England captain Harry Kane wins Ballon d’Or — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Kylian Mbappe
0%50%100%1%20 Oct, 05:47 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now1%
26 Oct, 23:03 UTC1%
26 Oct, 22:56 UTC27%
26 Oct, 22:22 UTC18%
26 Oct, 21:53 UTC19%
26 Oct, 21:18 UTC21%
26 Oct, 20:56 UTC18%
26 Oct, 20:12 UTC18%
26 Oct, 19:58 UTC19%
26 Oct, 19:15 UTC21%
26 Oct, 18:48 UTC22%
26 Oct, 18:04 UTC22%
26 Oct, 17:45 UTC21%
26 Oct, 17:28 UTC26%
26 Oct, 16:51 UTC28%
26 Oct, 16:24 UTC37%
26 Oct, 15:54 UTC33%
26 Oct, 15:17 UTC33%
26 Oct, 14:55 UTC30%
26 Oct, 14:23 UTC28%
26 Oct, 13:30 UTC25%
26 Oct, 13:06 UTC24%
26 Oct, 12:47 UTC24%
26 Oct, 12:03 UTC23%
26 Oct, 11:49 UTC24%
26 Oct, 11:24 UTC23%
26 Oct, 10:42 UTC24%
26 Oct, 09:32 UTC24%
26 Oct, 09:24 UTC23%
26 Oct, 08:23 UTC24%
26 Oct, 07:44 UTC24%
26 Oct, 07:06 UTC24%
26 Oct, 06:27 UTC23%
26 Oct, 05:04 UTC24%
26 Oct, 04:36 UTC23%
26 Oct, 04:29 UTC22%
26 Oct, 03:50 UTC23%
26 Oct, 03:13 UTC23%
26 Oct, 02:48 UTC21%
26 Oct, 02:20 UTC19%
26 Oct, 01:58 UTC20%
26 Oct, 01:12 UTC19%
25 Oct, 23:35 UTC19%
25 Oct, 22:54 UTC20%
25 Oct, 22:20 UTC14%
25 Oct, 21:29 UTC13%
25 Oct, 20:56 UTC11%
25 Oct, 20:26 UTC13%
25 Oct, 19:11 UTC16%
25 Oct, 18:25 UTC16%
25 Oct, 17:56 UTC16%
25 Oct, 17:17 UTC15%
25 Oct, 16:49 UTC16%
25 Oct, 16:21 UTC16%
25 Oct, 15:46 UTC17%
25 Oct, 14:41 UTC17%
25 Oct, 14:27 UTC18%
25 Oct, 12:49 UTC18%
25 Oct, 11:49 UTC19%
25 Oct, 11:21 UTC19%
25 Oct, 10:49 UTC18%
25 Oct, 10:21 UTC18%
25 Oct, 09:58 UTC16%
25 Oct, 09:14 UTC17%
25 Oct, 08:53 UTC18%
25 Oct, 08:07 UTC17%
25 Oct, 07:32 UTC18%
25 Oct, 07:25 UTC17%
25 Oct, 06:19 UTC17%
25 Oct, 05:31 UTC16%
25 Oct, 05:24 UTC18%
25 Oct, 04:56 UTC19%
25 Oct, 04:12 UTC20%
25 Oct, 03:58 UTC19%
25 Oct, 03:23 UTC18%
25 Oct, 02:49 UTC20%
25 Oct, 02:28 UTC19%
25 Oct, 00:50 UTC20%
25 Oct, 00:29 UTC19%
24 Oct, 23:48 UTC17%
24 Oct, 23:12 UTC20%
24 Oct, 22:58 UTC21%
24 Oct, 22:26 UTC18%
24 Oct, 21:51 UTC22%
24 Oct, 21:19 UTC23%
24 Oct, 20:51 UTC22%
24 Oct, 20:23 UTC19%
24 Oct, 19:58 UTC20%
24 Oct, 19:23 UTC20%
24 Oct, 18:50 UTC21%
24 Oct, 18:29 UTC19%
24 Oct, 17:54 UTC19%
24 Oct, 17:29 UTC19%
24 Oct, 16:54 UTC21%
24 Oct, 16:08 UTC20%
24 Oct, 15:55 UTC18%
24 Oct, 15:08 UTC20%
24 Oct, 14:47 UTC17%
24 Oct, 14:20 UTC20%
24 Oct, 13:52 UTC26%
24 Oct, 13:29 UTC19%
24 Oct, 12:40 UTC21%
24 Oct, 12:25 UTC19%
24 Oct, 11:57 UTC18%
24 Oct, 11:26 UTC16%
24 Oct, 10:58 UTC14%
24 Oct, 10:10 UTC14%
24 Oct, 09:50 UTC10%
24 Oct, 08:50 UTC10%
24 Oct, 04:25 UTC8%
24 Oct, 03:51 UTC8%
24 Oct, 00:59 UTC8%
24 Oct, 00:20 UTC8%
23 Oct, 23:57 UTC7%
23 Oct, 22:02 UTC8%
23 Oct, 20:35 UTC9%
23 Oct, 20:28 UTC8%
23 Oct, 19:57 UTC7%
23 Oct, 19:12 UTC8%
23 Oct, 18:22 UTC8%
23 Oct, 16:22 UTC8%
23 Oct, 14:24 UTC7%
23 Oct, 13:52 UTC9%
23 Oct, 13:19 UTC8%
23 Oct, 12:50 UTC9%
23 Oct, 12:02 UTC8%
23 Oct, 11:48 UTC7%
23 Oct, 11:06 UTC8%
23 Oct, 10:39 UTC7%
23 Oct, 10:10 UTC8%
23 Oct, 09:55 UTC7%
23 Oct, 09:07 UTC8%
23 Oct, 08:46 UTC7%
23 Oct, 08:21 UTC7%
23 Oct, 07:26 UTC8%
23 Oct, 06:25 UTC9%
23 Oct, 05:53 UTC8%
23 Oct, 04:57 UTC8%
23 Oct, 04:24 UTC8%
23 Oct, 03:53 UTC8%
23 Oct, 00:36 UTC7%
23 Oct, 00:28 UTC6%
22 Oct, 23:55 UTC7%
22 Oct, 22:11 UTC6%
22 Oct, 19:30 UTC6%
22 Oct, 19:23 UTC6%
22 Oct, 18:56 UTC5%
22 Oct, 18:20 UTC6%
22 Oct, 17:09 UTC6%
22 Oct, 14:46 UTC6%
22 Oct, 13:34 UTC6%
22 Oct, 13:27 UTC5%
22 Oct, 12:00 UTC6%
22 Oct, 11:07 UTC5%
22 Oct, 10:46 UTC6%
22 Oct, 09:18 UTC6%
22 Oct, 06:53 UTC5%
22 Oct, 05:46 UTC6%
22 Oct, 04:20 UTC6%
22 Oct, 03:45 UTC6%
22 Oct, 02:12 UTC6%
22 Oct, 01:37 UTC6%
22 Oct, 01:07 UTC5%
21 Oct, 23:35 UTC6%
21 Oct, 23:28 UTC4%
21 Oct, 22:24 UTC6%
21 Oct, 21:55 UTC5%
21 Oct, 21:12 UTC5%
21 Oct, 20:49 UTC5%
21 Oct, 20:20 UTC6%
21 Oct, 19:10 UTC5%
21 Oct, 18:41 UTC5%
21 Oct, 18:19 UTC6%
21 Oct, 17:57 UTC5%
21 Oct, 16:58 UTC6%
21 Oct, 16:08 UTC6%
21 Oct, 15:38 UTC5%
21 Oct, 14:55 UTC5%
21 Oct, 14:23 UTC5%
21 Oct, 13:12 UTC5%
21 Oct, 10:54 UTC5%
21 Oct, 10:17 UTC4%
21 Oct, 08:44 UTC5%
21 Oct, 08:17 UTC4%
21 Oct, 07:36 UTC6%
21 Oct, 07:29 UTC5%
21 Oct, 06:51 UTC6%
21 Oct, 04:19 UTC5%
21 Oct, 03:50 UTC5%
21 Oct, 01:31 UTC6%
21 Oct, 01:24 UTC4%
21 Oct, 00:29 UTC6%
20 Oct, 23:14 UTC6%
20 Oct, 22:52 UTC5%
20 Oct, 22:24 UTC6%
20 Oct, 20:31 UTC5%
20 Oct, 20:24 UTC5%
20 Oct, 19:55 UTC6%
20 Oct, 19:14 UTC6%
20 Oct, 18:45 UTC6%
20 Oct, 18:24 UTC5%
20 Oct, 17:53 UTC6%
20 Oct, 17:17 UTC6%
20 Oct, 16:49 UTC6%
20 Oct, 16:27 UTC7%
20 Oct, 15:51 UTC5%
20 Oct, 15:23 UTC6%
20 Oct, 14:47 UTC6%
20 Oct, 13:13 UTC7%
20 Oct, 12:46 UTC6%
20 Oct, 12:16 UTC7%
20 Oct, 11:19 UTC6%
20 Oct, 10:13 UTC5%
20 Oct, 09:19 UTC6%
20 Oct, 08:37 UTC5%
20 Oct, 08:03 UTC6%
20 Oct, 07:19 UTC5%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC6%

What counts

The outcome is Yes if Kylian Mbappé wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked injury story as relevant, but only the award result matters.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 1%
  • No 99%

View this market on Kalshi →

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