Democrats sweep
The market favoured Yes at 75% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$18.1M
Total volume$35.1M
Liquidity$35.1M
Resolved1 Feb 2027
Why it moved: +11 points at 01:27 UTC, after The Hollywood Reporter: Are the Midterms About to Be a Blowout Ratings Night for Cable News? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Nov, 00:22 UTC | 84% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 84% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Nov, 20:19 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 14:46 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 13:11 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 11:35 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 10:09 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 09:34 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 08:39 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 07:41 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 07:12 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 06:51 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 06:15 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 04:08 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 03:54 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 03:05 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 02:51 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 02:08 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 00:40 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 23:37 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 22:17 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 18:49 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 15:11 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 14:11 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 13:18 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Nov, 10:50 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Nov, 09:32 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Nov, 09:25 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Nov, 07:47 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Nov, 07:25 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Nov, 04:19 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Nov, 00:19 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 23:57 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 23:00 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 22:53 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 22:10 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 20:36 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 20:29 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 19:16 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 16:07 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 15:53 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 15:24 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 13:54 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 13:09 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 12:48 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 12:16 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 11:48 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 10:50 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 09:50 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 09:22 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 08:54 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 08:06 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 07:52 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 06:15 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 05:11 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 04:01 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 03:40 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 02:15 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 00:28 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 15:52 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 12:40 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 69% |
| 31 Oct, 04:14 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 69% |
| 31 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 70% |
| 31 Oct, 00:38 UTC | 69% |
| 31 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 21:46 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 66% |
| 29 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 65% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 66% |
| 29 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 65% |
| 29 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 66% |
| 29 Oct, 06:04 UTC | 65% |
| 29 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 64% |
| 29 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 65% |
| 29 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 64% |
| 29 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 64% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 64% |
| 29 Oct, 00:48 UTC | 64% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 64% |
| 28 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 64% |
| 28 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 64% |
| 28 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 64% |
| 28 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 64% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes only if Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the election. The outcome is No if either chamber remains under Republican control or if neither party holds a majority. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of individual seat counts rather than final party control of each chamber.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%