Novak Djokovic
The market favoured Yes at 65% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$27k
Total volume$77k
Liquidity$77k
Resolved9 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 99% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 63% |
| 6 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 66% |
| 6 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 65% |
| 6 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 63% |
| 5 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 62% |
| 5 Oct, 18:21 UTC | 64% |
| 5 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 65% |
| 5 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 64% |
| 5 Oct, 16:03 UTC | 64% |
| 5 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 63% |
| 5 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 64% |
| 5 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 63% |
| 5 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 64% |
| 5 Oct, 13:32 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 50% |
| 5 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Oct, 12:03 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 53% |
| 5 Oct, 11:07 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Oct, 05:50 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Oct, 13:54 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 13:30 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Oct, 07:38 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Oct, 17:37 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 17:26 UTC | 10% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Novak Djokovic wins the 2026 ATP Beijing professional tennis tournament. Readers often mistake this for any tournament he enters or confuse the deadline with the linked story's date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%