Bass Persuades
Implied probability 70%−6
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 70% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Sept, 22:16 UTC | 68% |
| 25 Sept, 20:25 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Sept, 15:35 UTC | 75% |
| 25 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Sept, 06:23 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Sept, 05:17 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 79% |
| 25 Sept, 00:06 UTC | 74% |
| 24 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 72% |
| 24 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 78% |
| 24 Sept, 21:39 UTC | 73% |
| 24 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 51% |
| 24 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 81% |
| 24 Sept, 18:41 UTC | 84% |
| 24 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 78% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 04:01 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Sept, 01:14 UTC | 30% |
| 23 Sept, 22:34 UTC | 24% |
| 23 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 21% |
| 23 Sept, 16:35 UTC | 30% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Sept, 15:46 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Bass Persuades holds the top spot on the Billboard 200 chart for the specific week of October 3, 2026. The outcome is No if it fails to reach number one during that exact seven-day period. Readers often mistake the release date or other chart weeks for the resolution deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 70%
- No 30%