Before the next general election
Implied probability 8%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$118k
Liquidity$118k
Resolves15 Oct 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Oct, 22:11 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 14:39 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Oct, 02:12 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 22:38 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 5% |
| 18 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 10% |
| 18 Oct, 21:07 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 19:45 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 16% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 15% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 16% |
| 17 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Oct, 07:34 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 10% |
| 16 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 10% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Alberta votes to secede from Canada before the next Canadian federal general election. It resolves to No if that vote does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Carney for the actual resolution event, but only a formal vote on secession counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 93%