Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
Why it moved: −10 points at 15:36 UTC, after CBS News Politics: Senate race unresolved in Alaska with weekslong process possible — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 08:07 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 07:02 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 06:19 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 21:10 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 18:35 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Nov, 11:40 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Nov, 08:38 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 01:42 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 00:15 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Nov, 04:29 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 23:43 UTC | 23% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Nov, 15:38 UTC | 40% |
| 31 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 21% |
| 31 Oct, 08:42 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 05:14 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 17% |
| 29 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 16% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election by a margin between 0% and 3%. The margin must be at least 0% but strictly less than 3%. Readers often mistake the upper bound, thinking a 3% victory counts as Yes when it actually triggers a No resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%