Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$87k
Liquidity$87k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Israel and Qatar establish formal diplomatic ties before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if this normalization does not occur by that date. Readers often mistake the closure of the UK consulate in East Jerusalem for the triggering event, but only Israeli-Qatari relations matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%