Above 4.4200
Implied probability 21%−61
24-hour volume$7
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 21% |
| 26 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 90% |
| 24 Sept, 12:09 UTC | 82% |
| 24 Sept, 09:13 UTC | 78% |
| 24 Sept, 07:12 UTC | 98% |
| 23 Sept, 06:30 UTC | 25% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the average regular gas price in New Jersey exceeds $4.4200 on September 28, 2026, according to AAA. The outcome is No if that price is $4.4200 or lower on that date. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any local station report counts instead of requiring the specific AAA data.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 79%