Gavin Newsom
Implied probability 77%+4
24-hour volume$15
Total volume$71k
Liquidity$71k
Resolves1 Jan 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 04:08 UTC | 77% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 76% |
| 1 Nov, 23:50 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 78% |
| 1 Nov, 14:09 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 78% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 79% |
| 28 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 80% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 79% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Gavin Newsom announces a campaign to run for the Democratic nomination in the 2028 presidential election before January 1, 2028. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake general speculation or media reports about his potential candidacy for an official announcement.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 77%
- No 23%