Miley Cyrus
The market favoured Yes at 84% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$18k
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 84% |
| 25 Sept, 02:53 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Sept, 18:49 UTC | 94% |
| 24 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 71% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 60% |
| 24 Sept, 02:38 UTC | 51% |
| 24 Sept, 02:18 UTC | 40% |
| 24 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 26% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Miley Cyrus releases an album that reaches number one on the Billboard 200 chart by December 26, 2026. The outcome is No if her albums do not reach that specific chart position within the given timeframe. Readers often mistake the release date of the album for the deadline, but the resolution depends entirely on when the album hits #1 on the Billboard 200.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%