Steve Hilton
Implied probability 1%−2
24-hour volume$4.8M
Total volume$9.2M
Liquidity$9.2M
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins and takes office as Governor of California in the 2026 election. It resolves to "No" if any other candidate wins or if no Republican is inaugurated. Readers often mistake the announcement of a campaign launch for a victory, but only the official inauguration after the election counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%