Democratic Party
The market favoured Yes at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$20.5M
Total volume$49.1M
Liquidity$49.1M
Resolved1 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 93% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 93% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 93% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 93% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 93% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 93% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 12:34 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 10:07 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 22:10 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 18:33 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 94% |
| 1 Nov, 16:07 UTC | 94% |
| 1 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 12:33 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 06:36 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 03:04 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 94% |
| 1 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 10:30 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 94% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 94% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party controls the House after the 2026 elections. The outcome is No if they do not control the House. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline, but the result depends on who holds power in 2026.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%