Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
The market favoured Yes at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 28 Sept, 02:33 UTC | 100% |
| 28 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Sept, 01:43 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 97% |
| 27 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Sept, 23:16 UTC | 96% |
| 27 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 96% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 96% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Sept, 13:36 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 13:15 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Sept, 12:21 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 07:14 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 06:17 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 05:57 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 03:39 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 03:19 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 02:30 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 10:13 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Sept, 06:25 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 04:01 UTC | 95% |
| 26 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Sept, 02:24 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 96% |
| 26 Sept, 00:49 UTC | 96% |
| 25 Sept, 23:22 UTC | 95% |
| 25 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 95% |
| 25 Sept, 22:16 UTC | 95% |
| 22 Sept, 22:41 UTC | 85% |
| 22 Sept, 17:36 UTC | 84% |
| 22 Sept, 16:46 UTC | 85% |
| 22 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 84% |
| 22 Sept, 15:40 UTC | 84% |
| 22 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 85% |
| 22 Sept, 11:59 UTC | 84% |
| 22 Sept, 11:10 UTC | 84% |
| 22 Sept, 10:08 UTC | 87% |
| 22 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 87% |
| 22 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 87% |
| 22 Sept, 08:40 UTC | 85% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ella Langley’s video wins the Best Country category at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. It resolves to No if another video wins or if her video is not officially nominated when nominees are announced. Readers often mistake the Billboard record mentioned in the linked story for the award criteria, but only the VMA winner matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →