UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)
The market favoured Alexander Volkanovski at 51% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$1.9M
Total volume$2.1M
Liquidity$456k
Resolved25 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +38 points at 21:19 UTC, after feeds.bleacherreport.com: Volkanovski Beats Evloev via Historic TKO, Stats & Highlights from UFC 333 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Oct, 17:08 UTC | 50% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 51% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 50% |
What counts
Alexander Volkanovski wins if he is officially declared the winner of the fight. Movsar Evloev wins if he is officially declared the winner. Readers often mistake the November 7, 2026 postponement deadline for the resolution date.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Alexander Volkanovski 100%
- Movsar Evloev 0%
View this market on Polymarket →