Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
The market favoured No at 72% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$29k
Total volume$61k
Liquidity$27k
Resolved26 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 06:34 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 26% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 36% |
| 25 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 18:32 UTC | 32% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 32% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 32% |
| 25 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 32% |
| 25 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 26% |
| 25 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 12:10 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 27% |
| 25 Oct, 11:14 UTC | 29% |
| 25 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 29% |
| 25 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 29% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 29% |
| 25 Oct, 07:11 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 06:41 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 03:58 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 26% |
| 24 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 25% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 27% |
| 24 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Oct, 08:36 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 25% |
| 23 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 27% |
What counts
The market resolves based on the final official vote count from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court after the October 25, 2026 runoff. It pays out 'Yes' if Flávio Bolsonaro wins by a margin of exactly 2 to 4 percentage points among valid votes. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day itself, but the resolution depends on when the official count is finalized, which can extend until June 30, 2027.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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