Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?
Implied probability 2%−10
24-hour volume$378k
Total volume$426k
Liquidity$73k
Resolves28 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −10 points at 20:24 UTC, after Times of India: Israel election exit polls show no clear winner as Netanyahu and rivals fall short of majority — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 21:26 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Oct, 11:51 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Oct, 10:27 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Oct, 09:51 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Oct, 07:37 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Oct, 07:10 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 04:06 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Oct, 01:32 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Oct, 22:15 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 15% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 15% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 15% |
| 25 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 20:26 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 12:10 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 11:14 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 08:00 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 16% |
| 25 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Oct, 06:41 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 06:05 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Oct, 02:21 UTC | 16% |
| 25 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Oct, 00:50 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 23:05 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 13:14 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Oct, 14:51 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 10:02 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 18% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if either the Democratic bloc or the Likud-led bloc secures at least 61 seats in the Israeli Knesset after the October 27, 2026 election. It resolves to No if neither group reaches that threshold or if the results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final resolution cutoff in June 2027.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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