Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
Implied probability 68%+2
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$43k
Liquidity$31k
Resolves26 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 68% |
| 15 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 68% |
| 15 Oct, 05:02 UTC | 67% |
| 15 Oct, 03:10 UTC | 67% |
| 8 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 68% |
| 8 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 67% |
| 8 Oct, 11:46 UTC | 66% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Lula receives more valid votes from voters outside Brazil than any other candidate in the second round of the election. The No outcome applies if another candidate gets the most votes abroad or if the results are not finalized by June 30, 2027. Readers often mistake the source of truth; only official data from the Superior Electoral Court counts, not preliminary reports or media estimates.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 68%
- No 33%
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