Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
Why it moved: −3 points at 05:54 UTC, after News Feed: Russia forced to ship grain via Arctic as Black Sea battles rage — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Nov, 15:53 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 12:33 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 09:28 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 08:32 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 07:52 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 06:08 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 68% |
| 31 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 72% |
| 31 Oct, 22:35 UTC | 73% |
| 31 Oct, 22:00 UTC | 74% |
| 31 Oct, 21:46 UTC | 73% |
| 31 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 73% |
| 31 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 74% |
| 31 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 73% |
| 31 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 74% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 74% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 74% |
| 31 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 76% |
| 31 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 07:39 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 01:32 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Oct, 20:15 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Oct, 12:06 UTC | 75% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Oct, 10:43 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 75% |
| 30 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 82% |
| 30 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 81% |
| 30 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 81% |
| 30 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 82% |
| 30 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 82% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 81% |
| 29 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 82% |
| 29 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 81% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 78% |
| 29 Oct, 21:07 UTC | 78% |
| 29 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 79% |
| 29 Oct, 19:08 UTC | 79% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 77% |
| 29 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 79% |
| 29 Oct, 16:50 UTC | 80% |
| 29 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 79% |
| 29 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 80% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 81% |
| 29 Oct, 13:15 UTC | 80% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 81% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 81% |
| 29 Oct, 11:12 UTC | 82% |
| 29 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 83% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 83% |
| 29 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 83% |
| 29 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 84% |
| 29 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 80% |
| 29 Oct, 03:28 UTC | 80% |
| 29 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 79% |
| 29 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 80% |
| 29 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 82% |
| 28 Oct, 22:18 UTC | 78% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 81% |
| 28 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 85% |
| 28 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 16:39 UTC | 85% |
| 28 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 85% |
| 28 Oct, 15:11 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 85% |
| 28 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 82% |
| 28 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 81% |
| 28 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 80% |
| 28 Oct, 10:02 UTC | 79% |
| 28 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 80% |
| 28 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 79% |
| 28 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 80% |
| 28 Oct, 00:00 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Oct, 22:44 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 82% |
| 27 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 80% |
| 27 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 76% |
| 27 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 75% |
| 27 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 75% |
| 27 Oct, 11:51 UTC | 74% |
| 27 Oct, 09:30 UTC | 73% |
| 27 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Oct, 01:06 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Oct, 00:31 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 09:32 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Oct, 06:00 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 71% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 71% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 71% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 71% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if representatives from Russia and Ukraine hold an in-person diplomatic meeting aimed at discussing peace terms by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Readers often mistake indirect talks through mediators as invalid, but these qualify if authorized by the governments.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 68%
- No 33%
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