Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?
Implied probability 43%−3
24-hour volume$697
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 43% |
| 6 Nov, 09:51 UTC | 43% |
| 6 Nov, 07:17 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 46% |
| 6 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 46% |
| 6 Nov, 02:36 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Nov, 02:14 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 00:34 UTC | 50% |
| 6 Nov, 00:20 UTC | 50% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 48% |
| 5 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 47% |
| 5 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 47% |
| 5 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 46% |
| 5 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Nov, 19:21 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Nov, 18:50 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Nov, 18:06 UTC | 46% |
| 5 Nov, 16:36 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Nov, 15:49 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 12:14 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Nov, 06:40 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 05:50 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Nov, 04:05 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Nov, 04:05 UTC | 35% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves based on which company holds third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard for Labs at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the day or ignore the requirement that models marked “AutoEval” are excluded from the ranking.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 43%
- No 57%
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