Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 07:07 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 05:30 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 02:31 UTC | 47% |
| 7 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 00:52 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 00:09 UTC | 46% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Nov, 21:52 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Nov, 20:53 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Nov, 20:17 UTC | 45% |
| 2 Nov, 13:48 UTC | 44% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves based on which company owns the AI model ranked highest on arena.ai’s Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on January 31, 2027. Only models with a visible rank and score are considered; those marked “AutoEval” are excluded. If Google’s model holds first place by rank, then Arena score, then alphabetical order of company names, the outcome is Yes; otherwise, it is No.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 45%
- No 56%
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