Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$63k
Liquidity$17k
Resolved16 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 16 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 01:09 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 0% |
| 15 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 0% |
| 15 Oct, 19:35 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 0% |
| 15 Oct, 15:52 UTC | 0% |
| 15 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 0% |
| 15 Oct, 03:10 UTC | 0% |
| 15 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 0% |
| 14 Oct, 22:38 UTC | 0% |
| 11 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 12:05 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 07:02 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Lula’s odds exceed Bolsonaro’s on PredictionMarketOdds.com for four consecutive hourly updates before October 16, 2026, at 12:00 AM ET. The source of truth is strictly the data published by PredictionMarketOdds.com, not news reports or other platforms.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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