Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?
Implied probability 90%+10
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$57k
Liquidity$7k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +8 points at 21:56 UTC, after decrypt.co: Google Wants Gemini to Be Your Next Coworker—Complete With Its Own Email Address — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 90% |
| 9 Oct, 12:16 UTC | 90% |
| 9 Oct, 11:01 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Oct, 10:40 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Oct, 10:01 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 88% |
| 9 Oct, 01:02 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 82% |
| 8 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 81% |
| 8 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 80% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 76% |
| 8 Oct, 08:11 UTC | 78% |
| 8 Oct, 05:52 UTC | 77% |
| 8 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 77% |
| 8 Oct, 04:31 UTC | 78% |
| 8 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 77% |
| 8 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 77% |
| 8 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 76% |
| 7 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 75% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 74% |
| 7 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 74% |
| 7 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 75% |
| 7 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 75% |
| 7 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 76% |
| 7 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 76% |
| 7 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 76% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 79% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome applies if Google does not release a new Gemini Pro model to the general public by October 31, 2026. The No outcome applies if such a release occurs on or before that deadline. Readers often mistake non-Pro variants like Flash models or closed beta access for qualifying releases.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 90%
- No 11%
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