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Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?

Implied probability 77%+4
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$50k
Liquidity$23k
Resolves1 Feb 2027
How the odds moved · Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?
0%50%100%77%22 Sept, 09:36 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now77%
29 Sept, 09:30 UTC77%
29 Sept, 08:27 UTC77%
29 Sept, 07:48 UTC76%
29 Sept, 07:10 UTC77%
29 Sept, 06:31 UTC77%
29 Sept, 06:22 UTC77%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC77%
28 Sept, 18:54 UTC74%
28 Sept, 14:06 UTC75%
28 Sept, 13:30 UTC74%
28 Sept, 13:20 UTC75%
28 Sept, 11:46 UTC74%
28 Sept, 11:17 UTC74%
28 Sept, 10:44 UTC74%
28 Sept, 10:28 UTC74%
28 Sept, 09:57 UTC75%
28 Sept, 09:26 UTC73%
28 Sept, 08:55 UTC76%
28 Sept, 08:17 UTC77%
28 Sept, 07:51 UTC74%
28 Sept, 07:26 UTC81%
28 Sept, 06:59 UTC82%
28 Sept, 06:24 UTC83%
28 Sept, 04:53 UTC82%
28 Sept, 00:54 UTC80%
28 Sept, 00:14 UTC80%
27 Sept, 22:40 UTC81%
27 Sept, 22:04 UTC81%
27 Sept, 21:43 UTC82%
27 Sept, 21:29 UTC83%
27 Sept, 20:43 UTC84%
27 Sept, 17:45 UTC84%
27 Sept, 16:16 UTC85%
27 Sept, 11:33 UTC85%
27 Sept, 08:35 UTC85%
27 Sept, 08:15 UTC85%
26 Sept, 23:34 UTC85%
26 Sept, 23:25 UTC85%
26 Sept, 22:14 UTC85%
26 Sept, 21:58 UTC85%
26 Sept, 18:26 UTC85%
26 Sept, 17:32 UTC84%
26 Sept, 17:23 UTC84%
26 Sept, 16:56 UTC85%
26 Sept, 16:03 UTC84%
26 Sept, 15:56 UTC85%
26 Sept, 15:23 UTC84%
26 Sept, 14:37 UTC84%
26 Sept, 14:19 UTC84%
26 Sept, 13:50 UTC84%
26 Sept, 09:57 UTC84%
26 Sept, 08:22 UTC84%
26 Sept, 06:40 UTC84%
26 Sept, 06:25 UTC84%
26 Sept, 03:31 UTC84%
26 Sept, 03:23 UTC84%
26 Sept, 02:17 UTC84%
26 Sept, 01:54 UTC84%
26 Sept, 00:33 UTC84%
26 Sept, 00:17 UTC84%
25 Sept, 18:00 UTC84%
25 Sept, 17:34 UTC84%
25 Sept, 17:06 UTC85%
25 Sept, 16:51 UTC84%
25 Sept, 15:27 UTC83%
25 Sept, 14:54 UTC86%
25 Sept, 11:56 UTC86%
25 Sept, 10:12 UTC86%
25 Sept, 09:17 UTC87%
25 Sept, 08:59 UTC87%
25 Sept, 08:26 UTC86%
25 Sept, 07:42 UTC86%
25 Sept, 00:06 UTC86%
24 Sept, 22:07 UTC86%
24 Sept, 18:41 UTC85%
24 Sept, 16:33 UTC86%
24 Sept, 16:26 UTC86%
24 Sept, 15:03 UTC86%
24 Sept, 14:18 UTC86%
24 Sept, 12:49 UTC86%
24 Sept, 11:41 UTC86%
24 Sept, 10:48 UTC86%
24 Sept, 10:28 UTC85%
24 Sept, 09:22 UTC85%
24 Sept, 08:22 UTC86%
24 Sept, 06:22 UTC86%
24 Sept, 04:23 UTC86%
24 Sept, 01:58 UTC86%
24 Sept, 01:27 UTC86%
24 Sept, 00:55 UTC86%
24 Sept, 00:16 UTC86%
23 Sept, 23:27 UTC86%
23 Sept, 21:29 UTC86%
23 Sept, 20:20 UTC86%
23 Sept, 19:39 UTC86%
23 Sept, 19:21 UTC86%
23 Sept, 18:54 UTC86%
23 Sept, 18:25 UTC86%
23 Sept, 17:52 UTC86%
23 Sept, 17:25 UTC86%
23 Sept, 15:37 UTC90%
23 Sept, 14:54 UTC90%
23 Sept, 14:15 UTC86%
23 Sept, 13:56 UTC85%
23 Sept, 13:28 UTC84%
23 Sept, 12:45 UTC85%
23 Sept, 11:51 UTC85%
23 Sept, 11:13 UTC85%
23 Sept, 09:28 UTC85%
23 Sept, 08:46 UTC85%
23 Sept, 07:34 UTC84%
23 Sept, 07:27 UTC83%
23 Sept, 06:56 UTC83%
22 Sept, 23:21 UTC86%
22 Sept, 22:34 UTC86%
22 Sept, 21:19 UTC86%
22 Sept, 20:28 UTC85%
22 Sept, 19:49 UTC85%
22 Sept, 19:28 UTC84%
22 Sept, 18:58 UTC83%
22 Sept, 17:54 UTC85%
22 Sept, 17:05 UTC86%
22 Sept, 11:10 UTC85%
22 Sept, 09:36 UTC85%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The outcome is Yes if the Swedish Social Democratic Party holds at least one cabinet minister in the first government formed after the September 13, 2026 election. The outcome is No if the party does not hold a cabinet post or if no government is confirmed by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 77%
  • No 23%

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