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Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability 12%−3
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$105k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
0%50%100%12%31 Oct, 07:25 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now12%
6 Nov, 17:57 UTC12%
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Your call. How does this end?

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What counts

The market resolves to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new physical device for individual consumers by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The product must be newly introduced hardware, such as a wearable or smart home assistant, rather than an update to an existing device or enterprise software.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 12%
  • No 89%

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