Spread: Broncos (-3.5)
The market favoured Broncos at 52% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$256k
Total volume$367k
Liquidity$401k
Resolved11 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 11 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 100% |
| 11 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 49% |
| 11 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 50% |
| 11 Oct, 01:40 UTC | 51% |
| 9 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 51% |
| 9 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 50% |
| 9 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 49% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 48% |
| 7 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 48% |
| 7 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 49% |
| 7 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 48% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 49% |
What counts
The Broncos outcome requires them to win by four or more points in regulation or overtime. The Chargers outcome applies if they win or if the Broncos win by three points or fewer. Readers often mistake the point spread for a requirement that the Broncos simply must win, ignoring the specific margin needed.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Broncos 100%
- Chargers 0%
View this market on Polymarket →