Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Christian Mbilli
The market favoured Canelo at 71% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$143k
Total volume$146k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 1 Nov, 01:03 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Nov, 00:56 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Nov, 00:21 UTC | 100% |
| 31 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 99% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 98% |
| 31 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 99% |
| 31 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 74% |
| 31 Oct, 20:14 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 73% |
| 31 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 72% |
| 31 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 71% |
What counts
The Canelo outcome triggers if he is officially declared the winner by the WBC or credible reporters after the fight concludes. The Mbilli outcome triggers if Christian Mbilli receives that official declaration. Readers often mistake a postponed event past November 14, 2026, for a draw resolution instead of a 50-50 split.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Canelo 100%
- Mbilli 0%
View this market on Polymarket →