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Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability 14%+2
Total volume$29k
Liquidity$16k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?
0%50%100%14%25 Oct, 19:39 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now14%
1 Nov, 07:45 UTC14%
1 Nov, 06:36 UTC13%
1 Nov, 06:15 UTC14%
1 Nov, 05:40 UTC15%
1 Nov, 05:11 UTC14%
1 Nov, 04:57 UTC15%
1 Nov, 04:29 UTC15%
1 Nov, 03:54 UTC15%
1 Nov, 03:26 UTC15%
1 Nov, 02:43 UTC14%
1 Nov, 02:29 UTC15%
1 Nov, 01:59 UTC14%
1 Nov, 01:24 UTC15%
1 Nov, 00:56 UTC14%
1 Nov, 00:28 UTC14%
31 Oct, 23:53 UTC15%
31 Oct, 23:17 UTC17%
31 Oct, 22:50 UTC14%
31 Oct, 22:28 UTC15%
31 Oct, 21:39 UTC16%
31 Oct, 21:10 UTC14%
31 Oct, 20:57 UTC14%
31 Oct, 20:28 UTC16%
31 Oct, 19:59 UTC15%
31 Oct, 19:17 UTC13%
31 Oct, 18:55 UTC14%
31 Oct, 18:27 UTC13%
31 Oct, 17:42 UTC14%
31 Oct, 17:13 UTC14%
31 Oct, 16:58 UTC14%
31 Oct, 16:29 UTC14%
31 Oct, 15:59 UTC14%
31 Oct, 15:22 UTC14%
31 Oct, 14:53 UTC14%
31 Oct, 14:16 UTC14%
31 Oct, 13:53 UTC13%
31 Oct, 13:23 UTC13%
31 Oct, 12:54 UTC13%
31 Oct, 12:25 UTC15%
31 Oct, 11:42 UTC13%
31 Oct, 11:21 UTC14%
31 Oct, 10:59 UTC15%
31 Oct, 10:13 UTC14%
31 Oct, 09:24 UTC14%
31 Oct, 08:56 UTC14%
31 Oct, 08:28 UTC13%
31 Oct, 07:53 UTC14%
31 Oct, 07:18 UTC14%
31 Oct, 06:57 UTC14%
31 Oct, 06:29 UTC15%
31 Oct, 05:54 UTC15%
31 Oct, 05:26 UTC14%
31 Oct, 04:57 UTC15%
31 Oct, 04:21 UTC14%
31 Oct, 03:52 UTC14%
31 Oct, 03:24 UTC14%
31 Oct, 02:40 UTC14%
31 Oct, 02:26 UTC14%
31 Oct, 01:53 UTC14%
31 Oct, 00:57 UTC15%
30 Oct, 23:23 UTC15%
30 Oct, 21:24 UTC15%
30 Oct, 20:37 UTC15%
30 Oct, 19:53 UTC16%
30 Oct, 19:13 UTC15%
30 Oct, 18:44 UTC16%
30 Oct, 18:18 UTC18%
30 Oct, 17:56 UTC17%
30 Oct, 17:27 UTC17%
30 Oct, 16:54 UTC17%
30 Oct, 16:25 UTC17%
30 Oct, 15:50 UTC16%
30 Oct, 15:28 UTC18%
30 Oct, 14:38 UTC18%
30 Oct, 14:23 UTC18%
30 Oct, 13:58 UTC18%
30 Oct, 13:20 UTC16%
30 Oct, 12:59 UTC18%
30 Oct, 12:24 UTC17%
30 Oct, 11:52 UTC17%
30 Oct, 11:24 UTC17%
30 Oct, 10:50 UTC14%
30 Oct, 10:28 UTC16%
30 Oct, 09:58 UTC13%
30 Oct, 09:29 UTC15%
30 Oct, 08:55 UTC12%
30 Oct, 08:09 UTC10%
30 Oct, 07:55 UTC10%
30 Oct, 07:28 UTC11%
30 Oct, 06:56 UTC10%
30 Oct, 06:28 UTC12%
30 Oct, 04:01 UTC8%
30 Oct, 03:54 UTC8%
30 Oct, 01:55 UTC8%
30 Oct, 00:06 UTC8%
29 Oct, 23:47 UTC8%
29 Oct, 22:50 UTC8%
29 Oct, 22:10 UTC8%
29 Oct, 21:48 UTC7%
29 Oct, 21:14 UTC8%
29 Oct, 20:16 UTC8%
29 Oct, 19:57 UTC7%
29 Oct, 18:13 UTC6%
29 Oct, 17:46 UTC8%
29 Oct, 17:26 UTC17%
29 Oct, 16:57 UTC19%
29 Oct, 16:15 UTC18%
29 Oct, 15:45 UTC17%
29 Oct, 15:22 UTC19%
29 Oct, 14:47 UTC21%
29 Oct, 14:16 UTC16%
29 Oct, 13:46 UTC18%
29 Oct, 13:29 UTC19%
29 Oct, 12:59 UTC18%
29 Oct, 12:25 UTC17%
29 Oct, 11:47 UTC20%
29 Oct, 11:20 UTC22%
29 Oct, 10:58 UTC19%
29 Oct, 10:26 UTC18%
29 Oct, 09:55 UTC20%
29 Oct, 09:26 UTC22%
29 Oct, 08:43 UTC17%
29 Oct, 08:26 UTC18%
29 Oct, 07:58 UTC20%
29 Oct, 07:26 UTC19%
29 Oct, 06:58 UTC17%
29 Oct, 06:18 UTC20%
29 Oct, 05:58 UTC22%
29 Oct, 05:29 UTC17%
29 Oct, 04:56 UTC19%
29 Oct, 04:28 UTC21%
29 Oct, 03:42 UTC16%
29 Oct, 03:28 UTC17%
29 Oct, 02:53 UTC20%
29 Oct, 02:27 UTC22%
29 Oct, 01:59 UTC16%
29 Oct, 01:18 UTC19%
29 Oct, 00:55 UTC21%
29 Oct, 00:27 UTC21%
28 Oct, 23:54 UTC17%
28 Oct, 23:26 UTC19%
28 Oct, 22:46 UTC21%
28 Oct, 22:25 UTC16%
28 Oct, 21:57 UTC19%
28 Oct, 21:15 UTC21%
28 Oct, 20:59 UTC22%
27 Oct, 20:46 UTC15%
27 Oct, 20:24 UTC17%
27 Oct, 19:55 UTC17%
27 Oct, 19:26 UTC17%
27 Oct, 18:56 UTC18%
27 Oct, 18:19 UTC18%
27 Oct, 17:57 UTC18%
27 Oct, 17:07 UTC18%
27 Oct, 16:37 UTC16%
27 Oct, 16:22 UTC20%
27 Oct, 12:57 UTC23%
26 Oct, 20:40 UTC25%
26 Oct, 19:15 UTC24%
25 Oct, 21:03 UTC23%
25 Oct, 19:39 UTC22%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if US warships physically pass through the narrowest part of the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event requires official confirmation from the US government or military, or overwhelming consensus among credible news sources reporting that specific transit occurred within the deadline.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 14%
  • No 86%

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