Spread: Bills (-6.5)
The market favoured Bills at 54% a day out, but Patriots won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$1.2M
Total volume$1.3M
Liquidity$280k
Resolved4 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Oct, 15:32 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 53% |
| 2 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 53% |
What counts
The Bills outcome occurs if they win by seven points or more. The Patriots outcome applies if they win, tie, or lose by six points or fewer. Readers often mistake the point spread for a requirement to cover the spread rather than winning by that margin.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Bills 0%
- Patriots 100%
View this market on Polymarket →