Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?
The market favoured No at 58% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$21k
Total volume$22k
Liquidity$0
Resolved31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Oct, 00:50 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 22:05 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 37% |
| 23 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 42% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Max Verstappen is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during qualifying for the 2026 United States Grand Prix. The No outcome applies if any other driver achieves that fastest time.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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