Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$11k
Resolved8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 11:04 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 10:57 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 04:04 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 02:06 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 22:00 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 20:45 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 06:44 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 01:58 UTC | 0% |
| 23 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 00:07 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 21:06 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping share an in-person kiss while Xi is on US soil, supported by video or photo evidence released during the summit days. The No outcome applies if no such kiss happens, if the required media does not appear in time, or if Xi never enters US territory by the October 7 deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →