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Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?

Implied probability 76%+22
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$50k
Liquidity$45k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
How the odds moved · Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
0%50%100%76%14 Oct, 22:52 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now76%
21 Oct, 20:20 UTC76%
21 Oct, 19:54 UTC75%
21 Oct, 19:10 UTC74%
21 Oct, 18:41 UTC73%
21 Oct, 18:19 UTC71%
21 Oct, 17:20 UTC71%
21 Oct, 16:51 UTC73%
21 Oct, 16:29 UTC76%
21 Oct, 15:53 UTC75%
21 Oct, 15:25 UTC69%
21 Oct, 14:55 UTC68%
21 Oct, 14:23 UTC72%
21 Oct, 13:40 UTC58%
21 Oct, 12:42 UTC56%
21 Oct, 12:14 UTC53%
21 Oct, 09:26 UTC54%
21 Oct, 03:29 UTC53%
20 Oct, 21:56 UTC53%
20 Oct, 21:06 UTC53%
20 Oct, 20:31 UTC51%
20 Oct, 20:02 UTC53%
20 Oct, 19:55 UTC54%
20 Oct, 19:21 UTC53%
20 Oct, 18:24 UTC56%
20 Oct, 17:46 UTC51%
20 Oct, 17:24 UTC51%
20 Oct, 14:40 UTC50%
20 Oct, 14:10 UTC50%
20 Oct, 13:53 UTC50%
20 Oct, 08:15 UTC51%
20 Oct, 07:56 UTC50%
20 Oct, 06:58 UTC47%
20 Oct, 06:02 UTC47%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC47%
18 Oct, 23:29 UTC54%
18 Oct, 22:07 UTC55%
18 Oct, 21:48 UTC56%
18 Oct, 20:59 UTC55%
18 Oct, 14:34 UTC49%
18 Oct, 14:13 UTC50%
18 Oct, 11:26 UTC51%
18 Oct, 10:01 UTC51%
18 Oct, 09:54 UTC47%
18 Oct, 09:26 UTC48%
18 Oct, 08:47 UTC47%
18 Oct, 07:08 UTC47%
18 Oct, 06:37 UTC47%
18 Oct, 05:56 UTC47%
18 Oct, 05:04 UTC48%
18 Oct, 04:43 UTC48%
17 Oct, 20:05 UTC51%
17 Oct, 19:11 UTC52%
17 Oct, 18:57 UTC52%
17 Oct, 17:35 UTC52%
17 Oct, 17:14 UTC52%
17 Oct, 16:37 UTC52%
17 Oct, 16:09 UTC52%
17 Oct, 15:43 UTC50%
17 Oct, 15:08 UTC55%
17 Oct, 14:27 UTC59%
17 Oct, 12:55 UTC52%
17 Oct, 12:27 UTC54%
17 Oct, 11:26 UTC50%
17 Oct, 10:47 UTC53%
17 Oct, 10:19 UTC54%
17 Oct, 09:52 UTC54%
17 Oct, 09:26 UTC55%
17 Oct, 08:20 UTC52%
17 Oct, 07:34 UTC54%
17 Oct, 07:27 UTC52%
17 Oct, 06:54 UTC50%
17 Oct, 06:27 UTC52%
17 Oct, 05:35 UTC52%
17 Oct, 02:36 UTC53%
17 Oct, 02:11 UTC53%
17 Oct, 00:51 UTC53%
17 Oct, 00:24 UTC53%
16 Oct, 18:52 UTC52%
16 Oct, 18:17 UTC52%
16 Oct, 17:55 UTC52%
16 Oct, 16:39 UTC52%
16 Oct, 15:38 UTC53%
16 Oct, 15:24 UTC55%
16 Oct, 14:38 UTC54%
16 Oct, 13:31 UTC55%
16 Oct, 13:03 UTC54%
16 Oct, 12:49 UTC55%
16 Oct, 12:26 UTC53%
16 Oct, 11:58 UTC53%
16 Oct, 11:09 UTC51%
16 Oct, 10:55 UTC48%
16 Oct, 10:28 UTC48%
16 Oct, 08:59 UTC53%
16 Oct, 08:20 UTC55%
16 Oct, 07:53 UTC53%
16 Oct, 07:24 UTC45%
15 Oct, 23:28 UTC50%
15 Oct, 21:13 UTC50%
15 Oct, 18:55 UTC51%
15 Oct, 17:03 UTC53%
15 Oct, 14:57 UTC52%
15 Oct, 13:10 UTC53%
15 Oct, 12:37 UTC56%
15 Oct, 12:23 UTC56%
15 Oct, 11:34 UTC56%
15 Oct, 11:27 UTC56%
15 Oct, 09:50 UTC56%
15 Oct, 06:01 UTC56%
15 Oct, 05:41 UTC56%
15 Oct, 05:16 UTC57%
15 Oct, 04:36 UTC57%
15 Oct, 03:03 UTC58%
14 Oct, 23:41 UTC57%
14 Oct, 23:14 UTC57%
14 Oct, 22:52 UTC58%

Your call. How does this end?

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if representatives from Russia and Ukraine hold an in-person diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The meeting must be deliberate, official, and publicly acknowledged by either government or credible media consensus. Readers often mistake indirect talks through mediators for non-qualifying events, but these count if authorized by the governments.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 76%
  • No 24%

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