Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 24?
Why it moved: +7 points at 08:46 UTC, after South China Morning Post: Hong Kong marks hottest ‘Frost’ solar term on record at 32.1 degrees Celsius — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 47% |
| 23 Oct, 15:06 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 12:02 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 09:07 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 46% |
| 22 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 39% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on October 24, 2026. The outcome depends on whether that specific daily maximum reaches or exceeds 31°C. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the source of truth, but only the finalized data from the Hong Kong Observatory counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 47%
- No 54%
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