Will FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
The market favoured No at 76% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$1.0M
Total volume$1.0M
Liquidity$937k
Resolved21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 21 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 26% |
| 21 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 25% |
| 21 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 26% |
| 21 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 25% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and No otherwise. The official result from the governing body determines the outcome, with backup data sources used only if that information is delayed. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution or assume cancellations automatically trigger a specific payout without checking the make-up game rule.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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