Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25?
The market favoured No at 89% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$761k
Total volume$804k
Liquidity$446k
Resolved25 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 23:01 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Sept, 03:24 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 21:10 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 22:27 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Sept, 22:26 UTC | 14% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Türkiye wins the match against France on September 25, 2026, and to "No" otherwise. The result depends solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Readers often mistakenly include extra time or penalty shootouts in the outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →