Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?
The market favoured No at 55% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +65 points at 18:56 UTC, after politico.com: Stephen Miller will replace Susie Wiles as White House chief of staff — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 19:11 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 33% |
| 6 Nov, 17:12 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 16:43 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Nov, 16:28 UTC | 43% |
| 6 Nov, 10:20 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 08:20 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Nov, 18:13 UTC | 46% |
| 5 Nov, 17:13 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Nov, 16:05 UTC | 46% |
| 5 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 46% |
| 5 Nov, 15:05 UTC | 52% |
| 5 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 52% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 12:52 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 12:29 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 10:17 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 09:48 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 09:25 UTC | 49% |
| 5 Nov, 08:51 UTC | 49% |
| 5 Nov, 03:37 UTC | 50% |
| 5 Nov, 03:16 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 02:39 UTC | 52% |
| 5 Nov, 02:10 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 01:42 UTC | 50% |
| 5 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 00:51 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Nov, 22:05 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 18:42 UTC | 66% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 66% |
| 4 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 68% |
| 4 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 71% |
| 4 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Nov, 04:03 UTC | 47% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 47% |
| 4 Nov, 01:42 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Nov, 19:14 UTC | 44% |
| 3 Nov, 17:33 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Nov, 16:47 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 44% |
| 31 Oct, 21:46 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 20:07 UTC | 47% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 47% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 15:52 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 47% |
| 31 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 47% |
| 31 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 47% |
| 31 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 47% |
| 31 Oct, 11:28 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 09:52 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 07:39 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 47% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 44% |
| 30 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 46% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Susie Wiles stops being White House Chief of Staff at any point before December 31, 2026, or if an announcement of her resignation or removal occurs before that date. The resolution relies on official Trump administration information or a consensus of credible reporting. Readers often mistake the deadline for the effective date of the departure rather than the date of the announcement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →