Will Netherlands win on 2026-09-24?
The market favoured No at 61% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$519k
Total volume$546k
Liquidity$607k
Resolved24 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Sept, 18:09 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Sept, 15:38 UTC | 36% |
| 24 Sept, 11:02 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Sept, 09:29 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Sept, 07:12 UTC | 39% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 40% |
| 22 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 41% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Netherlands wins the match within the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It resolves to No if the game is canceled with no make-up, or if Netherlands does not win. Readers often mistake the final result after extra time or penalties for the deciding factor, but only the score at the end of regular play counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →