Will Anthropic not IPO by November 30, 2026?
Why it moved: −12 points at 21:23 UTC, after News Feed: Anthropic to press ahead with IPO targeting $1.5tn valuation — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 7 Nov, 06:12 UTC | 20% |
| 7 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Nov, 03:39 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Nov, 02:46 UTC | 17% |
| 7 Nov, 02:09 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Nov, 00:01 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 23:33 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Nov, 23:19 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 22:14 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Nov, 21:59 UTC | 22% |
| 6 Nov, 21:23 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 16:28 UTC | 42% |
| 6 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 43% |
| 6 Nov, 14:11 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Nov, 13:56 UTC | 42% |
| 6 Nov, 13:13 UTC | 43% |
| 6 Nov, 12:15 UTC | 46% |
| 6 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Nov, 10:49 UTC | 46% |
| 6 Nov, 09:58 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Nov, 08:55 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Nov, 01:38 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 22% |
| 5 Nov, 14:00 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Nov, 12:14 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Nov, 10:10 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Nov, 09:25 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Nov, 08:51 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Nov, 06:55 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Nov, 06:26 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Nov, 04:19 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Nov, 22:13 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 21:02 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 17:05 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Nov, 15:06 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 20:08 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 15:19 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 06:42 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Nov, 22:10 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 14:37 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Nov, 11:55 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Anthropic does not launch its first public sale of shares on a recognized stock exchange by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. It resolves to "No" if the IPO occurs before that deadline. Readers often mistake the linked news story about hiring an investment bank for the actual listing event, which only counts when shares begin trading on an exchange.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 81%
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