Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$147
Total volume$273k
Liquidity$31k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 02:51 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 19:04 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 5% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if another authority establishes actual military control over Perim Island by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if Houthi forces retain primary control or if the change in power remains contested or unverified by that deadline. Readers often mistake temporary raids, naval presence, or official claims for a resolution, but only established control counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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