Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 06:53 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Nov, 06:25 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 05:57 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Nov, 03:59 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 02:53 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Nov, 01:55 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Nov, 01:21 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Nov, 00:01 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 23:40 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 23:26 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 22:21 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 21:52 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 21:16 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 20:46 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 7% |
| 6 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 7% |
| 6 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 6% |
| 5 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tencent owns the Chinese AI model with the highest rank on the Text Arena leaderboard at noon ET on November 30, 2026. It resolves to No if any other primarily Chinese company holds that top spot or if the source becomes permanently unavailable. Readers often mistake the check time for the end of the day or assume any high-performing model counts regardless of its company's headquarters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%
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