Chiefs vs. Raiders
The market favoured Chiefs at 67% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$4.9M
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$46k
Resolved4 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 60% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 68% |
| 4 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 69% |
| 4 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 66% |
| 30 Sept, 03:34 UTC | 65% |
What counts
The Chiefs outcome wins if they win the scheduled NFL game on October 4 at 4:25 PM ET. The Raiders outcome wins if they win that same game. Readers often mistake the linked story about the Saints for the relevant event, but only the Chiefs-Raiders matchup counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Chiefs 100%
- Raiders 0%
View this market on Polymarket →