Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$72
Total volume$268k
Liquidity$43k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 19:22 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 13:22 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 00:48 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 10:12 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 07:37 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 03:12 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 14:03 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 10:07 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 15:32 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 12:03 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 22:05 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 2% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Arabia and the Houthis jointly announce a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The agreement must be a general pause in the conflict, not just restrictions on specific targets or future negotiations. Readers often mistake informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or statements about ongoing talks for a qualifying ceasefire.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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