Spread: Bengals (-3.5)
The market favoured Steelers at 53% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$547k
Total volume$859k
Liquidity$261k
Resolved27 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 0% |
| 27 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 28% |
| 27 Sept, 12:39 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Sept, 03:39 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Sept, 05:00 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Sept, 02:32 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Sept, 02:24 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 18:22 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 49% |
| 25 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 12:42 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 11:34 UTC | 48% |
| 23 Sept, 23:34 UTC | 49% |
| 23 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 50% |
| 23 Sept, 19:21 UTC | 49% |
| 23 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 50% |
| 23 Sept, 16:35 UTC | 49% |
| 23 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 50% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 49% |
What counts
The Bengals outcome requires them to win by four or more points in the scheduled September 27 game. The Steelers outcome applies if they win, tie, or if the game is canceled without a make-up match. Readers often mistake the point spread for the actual margin needed, but the rule specifies a fixed four-point victory threshold regardless of the betting line.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Bengals 0%
- Steelers 100%
View this market on Polymarket →