Will Bolivia win on 2026-09-30?
The market favoured No at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$164k
Total volume$180k
Liquidity$196k
Resolved30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 04:11 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 19:09 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 18:07 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 13:08 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 12:45 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 11:18 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 10:14 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 08:50 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 06:20 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 05:38 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 04:20 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 03:49 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 02:51 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 02:28 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 02:28 UTC | 3% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Bolivia wins the match scheduled for September 30, 2026, and "No" otherwise. The result depends solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Readers often mistake the final whistle time for the deadline, but the market remains open if the game is postponed.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →